Mobility in Blue-Green Spaces Does Not Predict COVID-19 Transmission: A Global Analysis.

Mobility restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic ostensibly prevented the public from transmitting the disease in public places, but they also hampered outdoor recreation, despite the importance of blue-green spaces (e.g., parks and natural areas) for physical and mental health. We assess whether restrictions on human movement, particularly in blue-green spaces, affected the transmission of COVID-19. Our assessment uses a spatially resolved dataset of COVID-19 case numbers for 848 administrative units across 153 countries during the first year of the pandemic (February 2020 to February 2021). We measure mobility in blue-green spaces with planetary-scale aggregate and anonymized mobility flows derived from mobile phone tracking data. We then use machine learning forecast models and linear mixed-effects models to explore predictors of COVID-19 growth rates. After controlling for a number of environmental factors, we find no evidence that increased visits to blue-green space increase COVID-19 transmission. By contrast, increases in the total mobility and relaxation of other non-pharmaceutical interventions such as containment and closure policies predict greater transmission. Ultraviolet radiation stands out as the strongest environmental mitigant of COVID-19 spread, while temperature, humidity, wind speed, and ambient air pollution have little to no effect. Taken together, our analyses produce little evidence to support public health policies that restrict citizens from outdoor mobility in blue-green spaces, which corroborates experimental studies showing low risk of outdoor COVID-19 transmission. However, we acknowledge and discuss some of the challenges of big data approaches to ecological regression analyses such as this, and outline promising directions and opportunities for future research.

Back to nature: Norwegians sustain increased recreational use of urban green space months after the COVID-19 outbreak

In Oslo, as elsewhere, the COVID-19 outbreak and the following lockdown measures during spring 2020 led to increased use of urban green infrastructure. Whether this has led to more durable changes in recreation patterns remains an open question. We used mobile tracking data from 53,000 STRAVA users to explore the longevity of increases in recreational activity. We compared 2020 activity levels relative to a weather benchmark (i.e. baseline), defined as the activity one would have expected given the time of year and prevailing weather conditions. Recreational activity increased by 240% during the five weeks of comprehensive lockdown and were maintained until the summer vacation period in June/July when they dropped to baseline levels. Yet, during August they increased again to 89% above baseline. Although activity increased across all city land use zones, after lockdown there was a shift away from residential and commercial zones toward city green spaces including forests and protected areas. Cultural landscapes and protected areas received disproportionately high activity levels relative to the length of recreational trails available within them. Recreationists in the teenager demographic (13–19) exhibited a four-fold increase in their share of the STRAVA user-base at the start of lockdown. The COVID-19 pandemic and its disruptions to the status quo has had lasting effects over the short-term on the way Norwegian citizens recreate. Our findings reinforce the value of urban nature and open spaces for societal pandemic preparedness, particularly youths, during and after times of crisis.

Urban nature in a time of crisis: recreational use of green space increases during the COVID-19 outbreak in Oslo, Norway

The global response to the COVID-19 pandemic has brought with it significant changes to human mobility patterns and working environments. We aimed to explore how social distancing measures affected recreational use of urban green space during the partial lockdown in Oslo, Norway. Mobile tracking data from thousands of recreationists were used to analyze high resolution spatio-temporal changes in activity. We estimated that outdoor recreational activity increased by 291% during lockdown relative to a 3 yr average for the same days. This increase was significantly greater than expected after adjusting for the prevailing weather and time of year and equates to approx. 86 000 extra activities per day over the municipality (population of 690 000). Both pedestrians (walking, running, hiking) and cyclists appeared to intensify activity on trails with higher greenviews and tree canopy cover, but with differences in response modulated by trail accessibility and social distancing preferences. The magnitude of increase was positively associated with trail remoteness, suggesting that green spaces facilitated social distancing and indirectly mitigated the spread of COVID-19. Finally, pedestrian activity increased in city parks, peri-urban forest, as well as protected areas, highlighting the importance of access to green open spaces that are interwoven within the built-up matrix. These findings shed new light on the value of urban nature as resilience infrastructure during a time of crisis. The current pandemic also reveals some important dilemmas we might face regarding green justice on the path towards urban planning for future sustainable cities.